Discussion Forums » Photography Topics

Curious about winter bird forecast

Moderator: E.J. Peiker

All times are UTC-05:00

« Previous topic | Next topic »

0 people like this post

First unread post

| 10 posts |

Page 1 of 1

by wdg on Wed Oct 25, 2023 2:27 pm

wdg
Forum Contributor

Posts: 86
Joined: 6 May 2017

Does anyone know what the Owl (Snowy, Northern Hawk, Great Gray, …) forecast is for this winter?
I haven’t heard positive indications of the Snowy Owl breeding season so wondering.
Thanks

0 people like this post

by OntPhoto on Thu Nov 02, 2023 5:07 am

OntPhoto
Forum Contributor

Posts: 7013
Joined: 9 Dec 2006
Location: Ottawa, Ontario. Canada.

Visit website

wdg wrote: Does anyone know what the Owl (Snowy, Northern Hawk, Great Gray, …) forecast is for this winter?
I haven’t heard positive indications of the Snowy Owl breeding season so wondering.
Thanks

You and me both. If the irruption cycle for northern owls keeps to every 4 years and sometimes 5, then winter 2024-2025 is the next irruption winter. But the winters preceding and following an irruption year can see a higher number of these owls.

Last winter was a dud for northern hawk owls in my area (eastern Ontario to western Quebec) but I'm seeing more eBird sightings this October compared to last October. Northern hawk owls tend to move southward starting in November.

There was one about an 8 hour drive from Ottawa in late October 2023 but I didn't want to put the kilometers in and the gas. Waiting for one closer to home. It's even more exciting now because I want to see how the Canon R6 MK2 handles fast flight shots.

0 people like this post

by Mitash on Mon Nov 06, 2023 7:45 am

Mitash
Forum Contributor

Posts: 36
Joined: 10 Jan 2014
Location: Siliguri, West Bengal, India

I'm no expert, but I think owl populations can be quite variable depending on factors like prey availability and weather.

0 people like this post

by wdg on Sat Nov 11, 2023 12:54 pm

wdg
Forum Contributor

Posts: 86
Joined: 6 May 2017

Frustrated as no SNOW or GGOWs as of yet (altho one snowy was just reported about 20 miles east of me)
I’m not sure if bad breeding season or if the major loss of habitat around here has created this absence.
Just a few years ago I could find 10-15 SNOWs in a day within 5 miles of my home. Great Grays - 20+ in an area an hour or so from me.
Short-ears are also very hard to locate now (there used to be 4-5 areas where they were easy to see).
I realize there is a fluctuation - 4 years or so - but the decline is obvious.

0 people like this post

by OntPhoto on Wed Nov 15, 2023 11:11 pm

OntPhoto
Forum Contributor

Posts: 7013
Joined: 9 Dec 2006
Location: Ottawa, Ontario. Canada.

Visit website

wdg wrote: Frustrated as no SNOW or GGOWs as of yet (altho one snowy was just reported about 20 miles east of me)
I’m not sure if bad breeding season or if the major loss of habitat around here has created this absence.
Just a few years ago I could find 10-15 SNOWs in a day within 5 miles of my home. Great Grays - 20+ in an area an hour or so from me.
Short-ears are also very hard to locate now (there used to be 4-5 areas where they were easy to see).
I realize there is a fluctuation - 4 years or so - but the decline is obvious.

Not sure where you are located. There were a number of years, maybe 5+ where we had a lot of snowy owls here in eastern Ontario to western Quebec. If I recall, these numbers were partially attributed to good breeding seasons. It is normal to have dips in these cycles. Quiet here for snowy owl too. We had some last winter but not in the larger numbers as those 5 good winters. The Project SnowStorm blog hasn't been updated since the spring. Maybe that's a sign?

I am mostly looking forward to the northern hawk owl. Looking at the eBird species map, there are way more birds reported this October and November compared to last year at the same time.

0 people like this post

by wdg on Thu Nov 16, 2023 12:12 am

wdg
Forum Contributor

Posts: 86
Joined: 6 May 2017

OntPhoto wrote:
wdg wrote: Frustrated as no SNOW or GGOWs as of yet (altho one snowy was just reported about 20 miles east of me)
I’m not sure if bad breeding season or if the major loss of habitat around here has created this absence.
Just a few years ago I could find 10-15 SNOWs in a day within 5 miles of my home. Great Grays - 20+ in an area an hour or so from me.
Short-ears are also very hard to locate now (there used to be 4-5 areas where they were easy to see).
I realize there is a fluctuation - 4 years or so - but the decline is obvious.
Not sure where you are located. There were a number of years, maybe 5+ where we had a lot of snowy owls here in eastern Ontario to western Quebec. If I recall, these numbers were partially attributed to good breeding seasons. It is normal to have dips in these cycles. Quiet here for snowy owl too. We had some last winter but not in the larger numbers as those 5 good winters. The Project SnowStorm blog hasn't been updated since the spring. Maybe that's a sign?

I am mostly looking forward to the northern hawk owl. Looking at the eBird species map, there are way more birds reported this October and November compared to last year at the same time.

I’m located near the Canadian/ND border. We’ve always had high numbers of Snowys and Shorties here.
The numbers fluctuated (seeing 2-3 a day in the worst years) but not to where they were (and are) very hard to find.
The recent report from ORI indicated a significant down turn over the last few years - with 0 nests found in the research area this last summer.
Shorties have also all but disappeared as well.
I have read that there might be northern hawk owls moving into the area where I see the great grays. Hoping so …

0 people like this post

by OntPhoto on Mon Nov 20, 2023 8:46 pm

OntPhoto
Forum Contributor

Posts: 7013
Joined: 9 Dec 2006
Location: Ottawa, Ontario. Canada.

Visit website

wdg wrote:
OntPhoto wrote:
wdg wrote: Frustrated as no SNOW or GGOWs as of yet (altho one snowy was just reported about 20 miles east of me)
I’m not sure if bad breeding season or if the major loss of habitat around here has created this absence.
Just a few years ago I could find 10-15 SNOWs in a day within 5 miles of my home. Great Grays - 20+ in an area an hour or so from me.
Short-ears are also very hard to locate now (there used to be 4-5 areas where they were easy to see).
I realize there is a fluctuation - 4 years or so - but the decline is obvious.
Not sure where you are located. There were a number of years, maybe 5+ where we had a lot of snowy owls here in eastern Ontario to western Quebec. If I recall, these numbers were partially attributed to good breeding seasons. It is normal to have dips in these cycles. Quiet here for snowy owl too. We had some last winter but not in the larger numbers as those 5 good winters. The Project SnowStorm blog hasn't been updated since the spring. Maybe that's a sign?

I am mostly looking forward to the northern hawk owl. Looking at the eBird species map, there are way more birds reported this October and November compared to last year at the same time.
I’m located near the Canadian/ND border. We’ve always had high numbers of Snowys and Shorties here.
The numbers fluctuated (seeing 2-3 a day in the worst years) but not to where they were (and are) very hard to find.
The recent report from ORI indicated a significant down turn over the last few years - with 0 nests found in the research area this last summer.
Shorties have also all but disappeared as well.
I have read that there might be northern hawk owls moving into the area where I see the great grays. Hoping so …

Nice newsletters on that ORI site.

The Roost Owl Newsletters

I am no owl expert by any means but the lack of some owls this fall is not likely due to lost of habitat. I say this without knowing what is happening where you are located. The owl population is cyclable matching the availability of food. As for northern hawk owl, I am already aware of several locations. ALMOST got a photo of one. This close. It's a story I'll tell when the season is over as I can't mention location at all.

0 people like this post

by OntPhoto on Sat Nov 25, 2023 7:40 pm

OntPhoto
Forum Contributor

Posts: 7013
Joined: 9 Dec 2006
Location: Ottawa, Ontario. Canada.

Visit website

Not looking good for snowy owls so far in Ottawa or anywhere in easterrn Ontario or western Quebec. It's looking a lot like winter 2010-2011 where few snowy owls showed up. Let's wait until early to mid-December to see if anything changes.

Probably a poor breeding season up north. Many of the snowy owls that move down here in the winter are juveniles. I took a drive around the usual hotspot for snowy owl in Ottawa and area. Nothing I could find around Eagleson, Fallowfield, Akins, Rushmore and Brownlee. I did see one car parked and prowling one of the roads at dusk but it may or my not be bird related. More than likely looking for snowy owl. East end is next

As mentioned, looks to be a normal season for northern hawk owl. I had a close encounter with one recently. A story to be told after the season is over.

0 people like this post

by OntPhoto on Sun Dec 03, 2023 11:45 pm

OntPhoto
Forum Contributor

Posts: 7013
Joined: 9 Dec 2006
Location: Ottawa, Ontario. Canada.

Visit website

Project SNOWstorm had a new blog post that hinted at a poor breeding season up north. "This is in keeping with the reports we received from the Canadian Arctic this summer, which suggested a general lack of significant snowy owl breeding activity." It didn't say 'no' breeding activity but a general lack of significant breeding. It is kind of weirdly worded. Maybe intentional

On the otherhand, I already know the location of a few northern hawk owl sightings. But there are a lot more I don't know about. Some are too long a drive, so I’m going to forget those. Good northern hawk owl season but poor season for seeing snowy owls in any significant numbers.

How about almost none in eastern Ontario. I'm sure one or two may have made their way down here but no reports. This isn't a species people worry too much about posting. Never say never but surely in a couple of weeks we'll know for sure. We had a good run.

Lastest Blog Post from Project SNOWstorm.

Otter's Summer Rumble - Dec. 2, 2023.

PS. One day I plan to make it to the Sax Zim Bog. Think they have reported a Northern Hawk Owl already. That is one location where they share owl sightings freely.

0 people like this post

by wdg on Tue Dec 05, 2023 2:55 pm

wdg
Forum Contributor

Posts: 86
Joined: 6 May 2017

OntPhoto wrote: Project SNOWstorm had a new blog post that hinted at a poor breeding season up north. "This is in keeping with the reports we received from the Canadian Arctic this summer, which suggested a general lack of significant snowy owl breeding activity." It didn't say 'no' breeding activity but a general lack of significant breeding. It is kind of weirdly worded. Maybe intentional

On the otherhand, I already know the location of a few northern hawk owl sightings. But there are a lot more I don't know about. Some are too long a drive, so I’m going to forget those. Good northern hawk owl season but poor season for seeing snowy owls in any significant numbers.

How about almost none in eastern Ontario. I'm sure one or two may have made their way down here but no reports. This isn't a species people worry too much about posting. Never say never but surely in a couple of weeks we'll know for sure. We had a good run.

Lastest Blog Post from Project SNOWstorm.

Otter's Summer Rumble - Dec. 2, 2023.

PS. One day I plan to make it to the Sax Zim Bog. Think they have reported a Northern Hawk Owl already. That is one location where they share owl sightings freely.

Sax Zim Bog wonderful area - great grays are there every winter.
Come down from Canada into Minnesota- northern Minnesota is another great area for great grays and northern hawk owls.
One year I located 23 great grays in a day in that area. Message me for specific locations if you decide to travel.
Hope you can make it.

0 people like this post