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by Wildflower-nut on Sun Feb 14, 2021 3:31 pm
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Anyone want to hazard a guess on when we can visit back and forth for photography by car without quarantine upon arrival?  I'd hoped this summer but the Canadian ban on cruse ships and the US uncertainty on how long it will take to vaccinate everyone makes me wonder.  Then there is the next mutant but I'm willing to assume it will not be any worse than the 3 we already have.  I'd hoped my vaccination record would become a visa so to speak.  Not so sure any more.
 

by EGrav on Sun Feb 14, 2021 5:07 pm
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I seriously doubt the vaccines will be the answer. Just like the flu vaccine, effectiveness will vary from year to year. Some years the flu vaccine is 15% effective, some years it is up to 35% effective. We will have to live with this virus just like the “routine  flu viruses.”
Already, Pharma is hedging their bets - remember when they touted 95% effectiveness. No more. Reality will settle in soon.
 

by Wildflower-nut on Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:22 pm
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I figure I will be wearing a mask, avoiding crowds and social distancing for the rest of this year even after I'm vaccinated.
 

by EGrav on Sun Feb 14, 2021 9:24 pm
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I think you are correct.


Last edited by EGrav on Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
 

by OntPhoto on Sun Feb 14, 2021 11:13 pm
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Wildflower-nut wrote:I figure I will be wearing a mask, avoiding crowds and social distancing for the rest of this year even after I'm vaccinated.
People in Canada are now used to wearing masks.  The unintended benefit being that very few people have gotten the flu this winter as a result.  Covid-19 has made wearing a mask acceptable in the western world and a few people may choose to continue wearing a mask in the winter months.  Most people will not, once the majority of people have been vaccinated.  Once the pandemic has run its course, a mask will just remind many of a bad period of time in our world and which they want to forget.  It is not the most comfortable either.  But at least if you continue to wear one in the future, it won't be an odd thing to do or to see.    

In the news we have heard that by fall in Canada, everyone who wants a vaccine will be able to get one.  At the same time there is talk about a third wave because of the variants.  It also hasn't been proven that being vaccinated will prevent one from continuing to spread the coronavirus.  I am sure studies are still being conducted on this aspect of a vaccine. 

I certainly hope that by end of year, I will be able to travel across the border (non-essential travel) to the USA by land crossing.  I may still have to wear a mask and/or show proof of vaccination and a negative test.  I have no idea if travel by land across the border will happen by end of year but by summer or late fall, we'll have a better idea.  Some are saying that we won't really be getting back to 'normal' until sometime in 2022. We shall see.  

One country I am following for the effectiveness of vaccinations against covid-19 is Israel due to a high percentage of their population being vaccinated.  

Video from Reuters
 

by Wildflower-nut on Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:07 pm
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OntPhoto wrote:
Wildflower-nut wrote:I figure I will be wearing a mask, avoiding crowds and social distancing for the rest of this year even after I'm vaccinated.
People in Canada are now used to wearing masks.  The unintended benefit being that very few people have gotten the flu this winter as a result.  Covid-19 has made wearing a mask acceptable in the western world and a few people may choose to continue wearing a mask in the winter months.  Most people will not, once the majority of people have been vaccinated.  Once the pandemic has run its course, a mask will just remind many of a bad period of time in our world and which they want to forget.  It is not the most comfortable either.  But at least if you continue to wear one in the future, it won't be an odd thing to do or to see.    

In the news we have heard that by fall in Canada, everyone who wants a vaccine will be able to get one.  At the same time there is talk about a third wave because of the variants.  It also hasn't been proven that being vaccinated will prevent one from continuing to spread the coronavirus.  I am sure studies are still being conducted on this aspect of a vaccine. 

I certainly hope that by end of year, I will be able to travel across the border (non-essential travel) to the USA by land crossing.  I may still have to wear a mask and/or show proof of vaccination and a negative test.  I have no idea if travel by land across the border will happen by end of year but by summer or late fall, we'll have a better idea.  Some are saying that we won't really be getting back to 'normal' until sometime in 2022. We shall see.  

One country I am following for the effectiveness of vaccinations against covid-19 is Israel due to a high percentage of their population being vaccinated. 
Video from Reuters
I really appreciate your view from North of the Border.  The news in Canada seems about the same as what we are hearing.  It sounds like by fall we may be getting a covid booster (to cover new variants better) along with the flu vaccine.  I'd hoped the border would be open by June.  Like you, I'm beginning to feel this summer is lost for travel anywhere other than within our respective countries.  As to when we can freely travel, I think that is going to depend on variants and getting people to get the vaccine.  I agree proof of vaccination is going to be necessary documentation just like a passport.  If studies show vaccinated people can be carriers, a recent covid test may be added to the document list.

The video from Israel is very encouraging that the vaccine will eventually allow us to control the disease.  As to how long to vaccinate our population, it depends on which expert is pontificating and whether you include those under 16.  Right now vaccine shortage is the problem here.  Even though I qualified, getting the shot required perseverance combined with dumb luck.  That will eventually be replaced by the problem of getting the reluctant to get vaccinated.
 

by OntPhoto on Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:22 pm
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Wildflower-nut wrote:
OntPhoto wrote:
Wildflower-nut wrote:I figure I will be wearing a mask, avoiding crowds and social distancing for the rest of this year even after I'm vaccinated.
People in Canada are now used to wearing masks.  The unintended benefit being that very few people have gotten the flu this winter as a result.  Covid-19 has made wearing a mask acceptable in the western world and a few people may choose to continue wearing a mask in the winter months.  Most people will not, once the majority of people have been vaccinated.  Once the pandemic has run its course, a mask will just remind many of a bad period of time in our world and which they want to forget.  It is not the most comfortable either.  But at least if you continue to wear one in the future, it won't be an odd thing to do or to see.    

In the news we have heard that by fall in Canada, everyone who wants a vaccine will be able to get one.  At the same time there is talk about a third wave because of the variants.  It also hasn't been proven that being vaccinated will prevent one from continuing to spread the coronavirus.  I am sure studies are still being conducted on this aspect of a vaccine. 

I certainly hope that by end of year, I will be able to travel across the border (non-essential travel) to the USA by land crossing.  I may still have to wear a mask and/or show proof of vaccination and a negative test.  I have no idea if travel by land across the border will happen by end of year but by summer or late fall, we'll have a better idea.  Some are saying that we won't really be getting back to 'normal' until sometime in 2022. We shall see.  

One country I am following for the effectiveness of vaccinations against covid-19 is Israel due to a high percentage of their population being vaccinated. 
Video from Reuters
I really appreciate your view from North of the Border.  The news in Canada seems about the same as what we are hearing.  It sounds like by fall we may be getting a covid booster (to cover new variants better) along with the flu vaccine.  I'd hoped the border would be open by June.  Like you, I'm beginning to feel this summer is lost for travel anywhere other than within our respective countries.  As to when we can freely travel, I think that is going to depend on variants and getting people to get the vaccine.  I agree proof of vaccination is going to be necessary documentation just like a passport.  If studies show vaccinated people can be carriers, a recent covid test may be added to the document list.

The video from Israel is very encouraging that the vaccine will eventually allow us to control the disease.  As to how long to vaccinate our population, it depends on which expert is pontificating and whether you include those under 16.  Right now vaccine shortage is the problem here.  Even though I qualified, getting the shot required perseverance combined with dumb luck.  That will eventually be replaced by the problem of getting the reluctant to get vaccinated.
For those who want to relive the beginning of this pandemic, PBS FrontLine - February 2, 2021.  
China's COVID Secrets

For those living in a cave for the past year.  Bill Gates nails it with this TED Talk from 2015.  Amazing on how spot on it is.
Bill Gates TED Talk from 2015 on next pandemic


Last edited by OntPhoto on Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 

by Pete Zwiers on Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:43 pm
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RE: I'd hoped the border would be open by June.

This is highly unlikely in my opinion ... mostly because relatively few people in Canada will have been fully vaccinated by then. I'm 55, and from what I'm hearing I will probably be getting my first shot in early July, and the 2nd shot in August (British Columbia). The border has been closed because of Canada's insistence (not the USA), and I'm guessing there is no way the federal government will be open it to non-essential traffic until September - even if you are vaccinated. After September (when they say that anyone over 18 in Canada will have the vaccine if they want it), I'm guessing non-essential travel and the border will be open if you have proof of vaccination. I'm planning on the summer being toast for cross border plans ... we're tentatively planning for November earliest.

This is of course just my guess ... I've been keeping a pretty close eye on the border issues because my wife's elderly parents live in the USA, and my biggest fear during this whole time is if something were to happen to them and how that would affect my wife emotionally (because she would not be able to see them).
 

by Scott Fairbairn on Tue Feb 16, 2021 10:17 am
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I read an article in the National Post or something similar a week ago. Canada has, on paper, ordered enough vaccines for 9 doses per Canadian. However, the federal government decided to sign on with the Chinese vaccine first. Then that fell through(I'm assuming due to the Huawei executive's detention in British Columbia). So we ended up down the list when they signed us up for the other vaccines. The article concluded that "Canadians will not be widely immunized until mid-2022 at the earliest." I sincerely hope the authors are incorrect.
 

by Wildflower-nut on Tue Feb 16, 2021 11:08 am
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Thanks Pete and Scott. I really appreciate your additional input even though I'm as unhappy as I'm sure you are about what it means for travel. Gives me a much better feeling for the situation. I guess I will have to put a visit off to late fall or next year. As you indicated, we will get a better handle on it as the summer progresses.

Stay safe.
 

by DChan on Wed Feb 17, 2021 3:24 pm
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Scott Fairbairn wrote:I read an article in the National Post or something similar a week ago. Canada has, on paper, ordered enough vaccines for 9 doses per Canadian. However, the federal government decided to sign on with the Chinese vaccine first. Then that fell through(I'm assuming due to the Huawei executive's detention in British Columbia). So we ended up down the list when they signed us up for the other vaccines. The article concluded that "Canadians will not be widely immunized until mid-2022 at the earliest." I sincerely hope the authors are incorrect.
Not sure about Canada buying the Chinese vaccine but here's something about carrying out clinical trials:


Canadians to help develop, test potential COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese company

Canadian COVID-19 clinical trial scrapped after China wouldn't ship potential vaccine


I don't expect things will be drastically improved this year. May ease up a bit  in late fall or winter is my guess. This summer?? No way.
 

by Scott Fairbairn on Thu Feb 18, 2021 9:57 am
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DChan wrote:
Scott Fairbairn wrote:I read an article in the National Post or something similar a week ago. Canada has, on paper, ordered enough vaccines for 9 doses per Canadian. However, the federal government decided to sign on with the Chinese vaccine first. Then that fell through(I'm assuming due to the Huawei executive's detention in British Columbia). So we ended up down the list when they signed us up for the other vaccines. The article concluded that "Canadians will not be widely immunized until mid-2022 at the earliest." I sincerely hope the authors are incorrect.
Not sure about Canada buying the Chinese vaccine but here's something about carrying out clinical trials:


Canadians to help develop, test potential COVID-19 vaccine from Chinese company

Canadian COVID-19 clinical trial scrapped after China wouldn't ship potential vaccine


I don't expect things will be drastically improved this year. May ease up a bit  in late fall or winter is my guess. This summer?? No way.

On May 16, 2020, the federal government made a deal with China for their vaccine, but it began to fall apart due to delays in shipments shortly afterwards. "Coincidentally," around the same time(the delays happened prior to the court ruling), a decision on the extradition of the Huawei executive came down to allow her extradition to continue. The article I read was in greater detail, but if you want to see a brief summary, see "Canada-China vaccine collaboration began to fall apart days after Ottawa announced clinical trials" in the Globe and Mail. You'll have to create a free account to view it.
 

by flygirl on Sun Feb 21, 2021 2:28 pm
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People would really trust a vaccine that came from China, OMG!!!!!  I have my second Pfizer shot Mar 8.
 

by OntPhoto on Fri Mar 05, 2021 12:51 am
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I think things are looking up with the availability of a number of vaccines.  Based on news reports from the USA, it seems like there may be enough vaccines for anyone who wants it (there's talk of by May) with Merck helping out Johnson and Johnson in producing the J&J vaccine. Logistics is another thing.  It sounds really positive here in Canada too.  Who knows, if all goes well, maybe we can travel cross border by late fall to winter, maybe with a digital vaccine passport (my speculation and there's been talk in the news).  If it doesn't work out, spring 2022 is fine with me.
 

by E.J. Peiker on Fri Mar 05, 2021 8:50 am
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OntPhoto wrote:I think things are looking up with the availability of a number of vaccines.  Based on news reports from the USA, it seems like there may be enough vaccines for anyone who wants it (there's talk of by May) with Merck helping out Johnson and Johnson in producing the J&J vaccine. Logistics is another thing.  It sounds really positive here in Canada too.  Who knows, if all goes well, maybe we can travel cross border by late fall to winter, maybe with a digital vaccine passport (my speculation and there's been talk in the news).  If it doesn't work out, spring 2022 is fine with me.
At least in my state, things are looking up as anybody over 55 is now eligible.  Got my first dose of Moderna yesterday.
 

by Scott Fairbairn on Fri Mar 05, 2021 9:09 am
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It's hard to say in Canada. The biggest issue is the lack of information and consistent eligibility guidelines coming from Public Health Units. The individual health units are free to make their own rules and interpret as they like. For example, I am designated as a Phase 1 priority(however, not top of the Phase 1 category), but some health units are not vaccinating my particular group until the next phase. So, you can have adjacent health units where one group gets vaccinated and in the other, literally across the road, they will not be eligible.
 

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