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I know many bird photographers in Ontario, Quebec and surrounding USA locations look forward to the annual finch forecast.  It's pretty much always accurate. 

It's here.

http://jeaniron.ca/2015/forecast15.htm


Updated October 26.  There is already a large movement of redpolls detected with over 15,000 estimated flying over a banding station in Quebec.

A few Boreal Owls have been banded at a Quebec banding station so far but I do not have the complete stats.  But if the northern Ontario banding station numbers for banded boreal owls is any indication, it wouldn't surprise me if the numbers will be up a bit at Tadoussac as well. The next irruption winter for both Boreal Owls and Great Gray Owls is not until winter 2016-2017.  But as mentioned in my post below, the years preceding and following an irruption will have a few birds moving southward. 

At another banding station in eastern Ontario, I see a few barred owls and long-eared owls banded or at least caught in the mist nets meant for the saw-whet owls.  The total number of saw-whet owls banded in Fall 2015 is roughly similar to Fall 2009 which coincidentally also had the same number of barred owls banded. Is there a relationship in these numbers or just a coincidence?  Were many barred owls seen that winter in eastern Ontario? At a banding station further north in Ontario, they have banded roughly 90+ long-eared owls and at least 58 boreal owls so far this fall. 



PS.  Obviously I am a bit passionate about owls.  I share my research on the subject (from what I find on the web including research papers and via sources I know) freely and as an educational thing for those looking for more than just a photo of an owl.

They used to provide an owl forecast with the finch forecast but have stopped doing that a few years ago due to not having enough study data to make any reliable prediction for the upcoming winter. This does not have anything to do with providing an exact location but in the general movement of the owls based on both visual counts before winter, rodent population survey and even seed availability as rodents feed on certain seeds so the availability of the seeds affect reproduction numbers.  Owls feed on rodents so rodent population will affect the owl's movement in search for food.

My unscientific look at owls for the upcoming winter? If the 4-year cycle stays true, great gray owls and boreal owls are not expected to irrupt this upcoming winter.  These owls are next expected to irrupt in winter 2016-2017. But, stats indicate that winters preceding and following (mostly following) an irruption year show a slight upward tic in birds seen southward. This upcoming winter would be the year preceding an expected irruption year. So, keep eyes open.

I don't expect a lack of snowy owls. Those large numbers for the past 2 winters have to go somewhere, again. There were not as many over-summering this summer as last summer.  There are always a few great gray owls and northern hawk owls that make it down to our area. Last winter there were at least 4+ northern hawk owls within decent driving distance and quite a few more that were farther away or not reported. Think I have seen at least one northern hawk owl each winter for the past 7 years.  Several great gray owls were around last winter including a well known large female near Quebec City. There were also 2 barred owls at the exact same spot.  First time I went there, the barred owl was perched at one end of the woods looking directly at a large female great gray owl maybe 80 yards away. An amazing scene to behold as I've never seen in person two large owls (from 2 different species) eying each other at such a close distance. Owl season is almost upon us in eastern Ontario.

Based on my observations of birding reports, the boreal owl's irruption movement seem to coincide with the irruption of the great gray owl.  Here are some stats from a banding station in Quebec.

Year (Fall)   Boreal Owl

1996            124
1997            10
1998            0
1999            0
2000            113
2001            55
2002            1
2003            3
2004            213
2005            36
2006            3
2007           18
2008           239   Winter 2008-2009 saw good movement of great gray owls and boreal owls.  That winter saw at least
                           5 boreal owls in a famous wooded lot in eastern Ontario.
2012           ??     Winter 2012-2013 saw a large movement of great gray owls and numbers of boreal owl were also reported including 2 in one spot in Ottawa.


Here is the list of the most recent invasions of Great Gray Owls in Quebec with the approximate number of birds reported. Good for those keeping track of such things. Note the consistency of great gray owl irruptions of about every 4 or sometimes 5 years for at least the past 3 decades. Look at how the numbers for 2004-2005 compared to all other irruption years.

Winter of         Great Gay Owl numbers in Quebec
Winter 1978-79: 60
Winter 1983-84: 350
Winter 1987-88: 26
Winter 1991-92: 60
Winter 1996-97: 60
Winter 2000-01: 103
Winter 2004-05: 600
Winter 2008-09: 70
Winter 2012-13   was another big irruption

A follow-up to the above email to a Quebec listserv: Basically what it means is that the irruption of great gray owls coincides with the irruption of the Boreal Owl and even Northern Hawk Owl.

"Hi all,

In response to the message from Pierre Bannon, I would like to emphasize that the last 4 irruptions of Great Gray Owls in southern Quebec correspond exactly to the years of irruption of the Boreal Owl according to statistics from the Tadoussac Bird Observatory. However, 2012 was also marked by a good movement of Owl in OOT.

Michel Savard from the birdwatchers club in Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean and member of the scientific committee of the OOT wrote an excellent article summarizing the incursions of (owls in) northern Quebec in the journal club in November 2008. I quote:

"According to the observations reported by birdwatchers, the incursions of the Great Grey Owl and Northern Hawk Owl are synchronized with those of the Boreal Owl, but their link with the red back voles and other species of voles, mice or shrew is not clear due to lack of adequate monitoring of mammal populations in different habitats, open and semi-open or boreal forests of Quebec. It also ignores the influence of the abundance of young hares following a cycle of nine to ten years in northern regions (Godbout, 1999). "

Several snowy owls have been reported in Michigan. Is this early?  Lots moving into Wisconsin already. A few in Calgary based on one report. Winnipeg, Manitoba has quite a few already. The birder who posted to a Calgary birding site wondered if this was early as well.  Or simply these did not move too far north and now showing up?  Snowy owls this fall seem to be concentrated in a certain area, the western Great Lakes region all the way to Winnipeg and Calgary and they're showing up early.  When we had irruptions of snowy owls in Ontario and Quebec the last 2 years, they also showed up in good numbers in October. I wonder what this means for locations east of the Great Lakes this winter....have the large numbers of snowy owls we've seen for the past 2 winters moved westward for this fall and winter?  Although people have reported the odd snowy owl here and there in Ontario and Quebec, we'll get a better idea locally some time into November and December.






PS.  I noticed the number of banded saw-whet owls (at one major banding station in eastern Ontario) are down so far this Fall.  Not sure what this means but the total numbers correlate closely to numbers for Fall 2009.  It may just be a coincidence and with weather playing a large part.  But both Fall 2009 and Fall 2015 had the same number of barred owls banded.

Definitely a good movement of snowy owls in Wisconsin.  I checked the maps for last October and couple of Octobers before that and this fall it is early.

Excerpt from the article:  "About 30 snowy sightings were reported through Wednesday in Wisconsin, according to Ryan Brady, a wildlife biologist with the Department of Natural Resources who oversees the Wisconsin eBird website. The reports are earlier in the season and higher in number than any year on record.

"It's unprecedented," said Tom Erdman, curator of the Richter Museum of Natural History at UW-Green Bay who began conducting snowy owl research in Wisconsin in the late 1950s. "It's causing us to ask 'Why?"  Erdman's hunch is related to climate change. He said a warmer Arctic could be increasing the habitat and abundance of lemmings, allowing snowy owls to produce more offspring more often."

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/outdoors/snowy-owls-fly-south-for-the-fall-b99601193z1-335411881.html


Another blog post from Project Snow Storm about this fall's possibly large irruption of snowy owls. 

The owls moving down in the Great Lakes this winter might be moving south in response to a genuine prey shortage as many of the early arrivals have been found to be very under weight and required a stint at wildlife rehabilitation centers. However, some caution it is still too early to tell how representative the sick and thin birds are of the irrupting population as a whole.

Excerpt:
"In 2013-14, virtually all the snowies in the East and Midwest were first-year juveniles, and they were almost uniformly fat and healthy, the product of a lemming boom in Canada and a highly productive breeding season. Last winter, the age mix skewed more heavily to adult owls (many of them second-winter birds that had likely come south the previous winter) and while they weren’t as over-the-top fat as the year before, their condition was still very good."

"Jean-François Therrien from Hawk Mountain, who was back in the Canadian Arctic this summer with his colleagues from Laval University, told us that while snowy owl breeding activity was reported in Russia and Finland, there was little indication of significant snowy owl nesting in the parts of Arctic Canada that they monitor. Other teams did find a concentration of snowy owls on Bathurst Island in the Canadian Arctic."

Looks like another exciting winter for seeing these owls.


http://www.projectsnowstorm.org/posts/quiet-winter-hardly/    


UPDATED November 14, 2015.  Starving snowy owls in Manitoba.  -  sounds similar to conditions of snowy owl observations in SnowStorm article above.

http://www.metronews.ca/news/winnipeg/2015/11/10/starving-snowy-owls-flock-to-southern-manitoba.html

November 23rd.  Another blog post from Project Snow Storm on the nesting population of snowy owls on Bylot Island in Nunavut (a study area) this past summer.
http://www.projectsnowstorm.org/posts/big-year-view-arctic/

Snowy owls are starting to move now in Ontario and Quebec.  There were some early ones in late October but more are starting to be reported now in the usual places including 2 on Gull Island at Presqu'ile Provincial Park.  Someone posted a nice flight shot of one taken on Tuesday.  A report of 3 on Wolfe Island last weekend and that means Amherst Island may have some too.  So, a decent winter for snowies from what I can tell.  That's it for my reports unless something unusual happens.

I hear reports of common redpolls here and there and pine siskins.  Likely these birds will be showing up more at feeders once we get a good covering of snow. 

Updated: November 20.  As I thought, 6 snowy owls were seen on Amherst Island on Thursday, the 19th.

Snowy Owls are showing up in the Midwest in significant numbers. Wisconsin had 72 reports by Nov 9th which easily beats the two previous years which were consider to be good "owl" wears. And banding stations have reported large flights of redpolls. Here in NE Illinois we have a few reports of Snowies, redpolls & Pine Siskins which again seems early. Have not heard much about the other interruptive passerines.

Cheers,

Jim

hullyjr wrote:Snowy Owls are showing up in the Midwest in significant numbers.  Wisconsin had 72 reports by Nov 9th which easily beats the two previous years which were consider to be good "owl" wears.  And banding stations have reported large flights of redpolls.  Here in NE Illinois we have a few reports of Snowies, redpolls & Pine Siskins which again seems early. Have not heard much about the other interruptive passerines.

Cheers,

Jim

The mid-west is seeing their third straight fall with large movements of snowy owls with this fall being one of the earliest movements. There is an interesting write-up on the SnowStorm blog.  And this as well, "But since most snowy owls creating a major winter irruption are young birds dispersing south for the first time — and given the low density of nests so far reported from the North American Arctic — I would predict a slower winter, at least in the eastern North American states." - Project SnowStorm.

The finch forecast is right on about redpolls this fall.  An Ontbirds report dated November 1st, 2015 mentioned the following (this is in addition to 15,000 reported earlier from same location):

-------------------------------------------------------


"Pascal Cote of the Tadoussac Bird Observatory (212 km northeast of Quebec City)
reports that yesterday (31 October) with “good winds (WNW), we counted 55,110
redpolls between 7:00 a.m. and 4:00 p.m. We are pretty sure this is a New World
record for one day. In Sweden, the highest count is 21,500. So over 125,000
redpolls have passed Tadoussac in less than a week.” - Jean Iron

-------------------------------------------------------


November is also the month that the Northern Hawk Owl starts to move southward.  Many may not be found/reported until later into December but they're around in November.  And they're right on time this year.

I find the Weather Network a good source for bird sightings.  In some countries where information is censored, people always find a way to get information out including social media etc.  

I did find an adult male snowy there couple of months ago but the one in the photo looks to be even whiter.  I haven't been down that way for 2 months but will be checking it out soon.  

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/photos ... t/24644918

In the Adirondacks of NY, south of Quebec ..... Red crossbills of a couple Types are showing up moderately but few white-winged crossbills. No snowys.

jnadler wrote:In the Adirondacks of NY, south of Quebec ..... Red crossbills of a couple Types are showing up moderately but few white-winged crossbills. No snowys.

I checked the eBird map and see that even for last winter, the area you mentioned did not see too many snowy owls either.  The birds seem to be concentrated north in and around the Montreal area and with lack of snow, no need to move further south   Suddenly within the last week I have been getting more snowy owl alerts.  This may be due to more people being out and about over the holidays and seeing the birds. 

I am looking for red crossbills.  Some have been reported not too far away from Ottawa but it's sporadic and numbers are low. I took a drive up to a local hotspot for red crossbills from several winters ago and zilch.  All I saw were crows.  Red crossbills wouldn't be drawn to the roadside without snow and the resulting salt and small grit and gravel.

Our region has been very good for the rarity type birds in December.  We still have Smew, Pink-Footed Goose, Bullocks Oriole and Mountain Bluebird.  Couple of Great Gray owls around in Ontario but you have to drive.  Same for the Northern Hawk owls.  If you are in the Sax Zim Bog, there is at least one GGO there that has been well reported.


Updated December 30th.
Someone was able to photograph a Boreal Owl in Ottawa a number of days ago.  Keep in mind, this is the winter preceding an irruption year so anything is possible   And a number of them were banded at a couple of banding stations in the fall.  One was reported in Algonquin Park in October.

Not my photo but I know where it is but can't talk.    
http://www.pbase.com/golfpic/image/162226544/original

Winter is here in Ottawa and good cover of snow on the ground.  Snowy owls are back as well in the Eagleson and Fallowfield area just like last winter.  Infact, I wonder if these owls are the same ones that visited last winter.  I think these owls will be very reliable from now on and for the rest of the winter.

There are at least 3 snowy owls.  An adult almost all white male is seen regularly on Rushmore between Eagleson and Old Richmond, closer to Eagleson.  I hear it is very cooperative and a number of people were photographing it today. There is also a heavily barred snowy owl that many people were photographing one field over at Eagleson and Brownlee on the Eagleson side in the big open fields.  Another juvenile snowy was being photographed along Akins.  

These are the same spots as last winter in that area and the same number of owls too.  These owls make our winters a lot more bearable

Updated for Jan. 8th. 

The absolutely most reliable place to shoot snowy owls in Ottawa is in a field on east side of Eagleson road about 80 yards past Brownlee.  You have to drive about 80 yards southwest of Brownlee to see the 2 owls as trees obscure the view if you are just at the corner of Eagleson and Brownlee.  How reliable?  It's a guarantee for the next 7 weeks.  And they're both rather tame.  No one bothers you there during the week days there.  More people will be out there on the weekends of course.

Updated for Jan. 16th.

In the block of fields bordered by Fallowfield, Shea, Brownlee and Old Richmond Road, I found 4 snowy owls in 20 minutes.  I missed the adult male again but from a number of people there it was seen recently.  Safe to say, at least 5 snowy owls in that concentrated area.  A tame one along Rushmore and another at corner of Brownlee and Eagleson.  These 2 would normally be seen at corner of Brownlee and Eagleson during the week days.  A collage of all 4 owls seen today. 

http://www.pbase.com/golfpic/image/162352083/original

In case you didn't know about this page already.  Cornell Labs publishes a snowy alert page.  It is updated as soon as anyone posts a snowy owl sighting to eBird.  
http://ebird.org/ebird/alert/summary?si ... sDt&o=desc

Locally, the best place to see snowy owls is still along Rushmore road between Eagleson and Old Richmond road.  Also, Eagleson and Brownlee.  This is where all the action is this winter.  Many people were out photographing the tame snowy owl along Rushmore from early this morning until sunset.  A beautiful winter day here in Ottawa.

Snowy owls hard to come by in the east end of Ottawa this year (Orleans).  

Someone photographed a northern hawk owl not too far from Ottawa.  

This is a strange one.  Hoax or real?  I use the weather network to look for reports on owl sightings.  Once in awhile you may find some gems.  Actually, a birder alerted me to this one.  The best place of course is still eBirds where 95% of reported owl sightings are now being made.  

A great gray owl at Green's Creek in Ottawa?  There are at least 2 scenarios I can think of for this posting.  I won't share them just yet.  It could be legit or just a wild goose chase.  The whole post stinks of weirdness.  Look at that first photo as well. Why would someone post something that bad and then something really good.  But people are going to go check it out anyways.  Still one of the stranger posts I have seen on TWN.  Others seem to have the same reaction.  But all is forgiven if it turns out to be legit.


http://www.theweathernetwork.com/photos ... 2/25222114